Chini assemblyman Datuk Seri Abu Bakar Harun (UMNO) had passed away on May 7 due to heart attack.
Subsequently, a by-election would be held for the state seat, making it the 11th by-election to be held in Malaysia since GE-14.
The late Abu Bakar was four-time assemblyman of Chini state seat, representing the constituency since 2004.
According to the past general election results, it was always a landslide victory for Abu Bakar, having over 4,000 majority votes in each election.
The trend of his majority vote was increasing. It declines in GE-14 due to being a three-way battle with PAS and PKR. Yet, he still had a landslide win, with 4622 majority.
The data also shown that PAS appealed to more voters compared to PKR.
Abu Bakar’s tremendous performance was due to Pahang being a stronghold for UMNO.
Looking at the demographic of Chini, over 90% of them are made up of Malay. This gave a huge advantage to UMNO as the oldest Malay-based party in the country.
In addition, Chini is located in Pekan district which is the parliamentary seat of former Prime Minister and UMNO president Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
Prior to that, Pekan was represented by the second Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Abdul Razak.
For the past five by-elections in the country, four of them were won by Barisan Nasional (BN).
Out of the five, BN managed to snatch two seats back to its administration – Semenyih and Tanjung Piai. Both seats were taken from PPBM.
BN took over both seats with significant number of majority votes, in thousands.
According to the statistics of past results and demographic of Chini, it is almost a sure win for UMNO for the upcoming by election.