It won’t be easy for PH if Rantau by-election were to commence

In November 2018, the Special Election court ruled that Mohamad Hasan uncontested win over Rantau state seat in GE-14 as null and void. Subsequently, Mohamad Hassan filed an appeal to the Federal Court over the decision.
Thus, the status of Rantau by-election is still pending. If the election were to proceed, it is most likely that BN and PAS will collaborate again after their success in Cameron Highlands by-election where BN candidate Mohd Ramli Nor won with 3,238 majority vote.
Rantau is a state seat within Rembau constituency along with Paroi, Chembung and Kota. Although the people of Rantau does not need to vote for their assemblyman, they still have to vote for their parliamentary representative.
Malaysia, Malaysia Indicator, Rantau, by-election
According to GE-14 result, a total of 36,096 people voted BN for Rembau. On the other hand, PH gathered 31,732 votes and PAS with 6,028 votes.
Since there is no vote for Rantau, we deduct Paroi, Chembung and Kota votes from Rembau. The result is BN with 9,464 votes, PH attained 7,661 votes and PAS has a negative 92 votes.
Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin is a prominent politician. So, it is possible for him to snatch some votes from PAS and maybe even from PH when it comes to voting for their parliamentary candidate. It could be the reason behind PAS negative votes after the deduction.
If we simply assume that everyone will support their preferred party for Rantau by-election (if it were to commence), BN still have more than one thousand majority votes over PH.
Malaysia, Malaysia Indicator, Rantau, by-election
Besides, Mohamad Hassan only has a slight decrease in vote percentage from GE-12 and GE-13. This means that Mohamad Hassan seems to be quite safe if the by-election were to happen.
Nevertheless, it is not a sure win for BN. If PH send someone who is relatable with the locals, they might steal some votes from BN and PAS to turn the table. Withal, the result of Cameron Highlands by-election had proved that it is not an easy task for PH to grab BN’s stronghold.